Baselining Lesotho's disaggregated energy factors, ratios and intensities for household energy demand forecasting
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Date
2024
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National University of Lesotho
Abstract
Abstract
The approach that is traditionally employed for household energy demand forecasting in many countries, including Lesotho, has primarily focused on two levels of aggregation which are to disaggregate data into rural and urban settlements. This study introduces an approach which is tailored specifically for Lesotho’s unique context. It adopts a methodology that utilizes Lesotho’s four agro-ecological zones, providing four levels of disaggregation which are the Lowlands, Foothills, Mountains and the Senqu River Valley. Additionally, it incorporates Lesotho’s ten administrative districts which are Botha-Bothe, Leribe, Berea, Maseru, Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing, Qacha’s Nek, Mokhotlong and Thaba-Tseka. They offer 10 levels of disaggregation in household energy demand consumption patterns.
The adopted approach allows a more comprehensive understanding of how the households energy consumption behavior varies across different zones and districts of the country. The approach provides valuable insights into zone or district specific energy needs and challenges; thus, it will enhance the accuracy of energy demand forecasting thereby informing more effective and targeted energy policies and interventions in Lesotho. The method used to baseline the disaggregated data is the exploratory data analysis (EDA) based on the Household Energy Consumption Survey (HECS) which was conducted in 2017. It uses both graphical and non-graphical techniques to uncover the data behavior, to spot anomalies and to check the trends through the visual and statistical summaries.
The findings of the study, using absolute values, indicate that during summer months, energy intensities per household in zones demonstrate high average intensity on fuel wood (168.4 kg/HH) and animal waste (148.7 kg/HH), and the low average intensity on LPG (6.8 kg/HH), paraffin (21.4 Ltr/HH), and electricity (69.8 kWh/HH). However, during winter months, fuel wood (165.5 kg/HH) and animal waste (147.0 kg/HH) have high intensities, while paraffin (30.8 Ltr/HH), aloe (39.2 kg/HH) and crop waste (62.9 kg/HH) have the lowest intensities. In the districts during summer months, animal waste (155.6 kg/HH) and fuel wood (144.1kg/HH) have the highest average intensities, while LPG (15.5 kg/HH) and paraffin (38.6 Ltr/HH) have the lowest. In winter months, animal waste (157.2 kg/HH) and fuel wood (152.1 Ltr/HH) show high intensities, while aloe (31.1 kg/HH) and LPG (44.1 kg/HH) take the lower energy intensities. Per capita energy consumption in zones during summer months shows shrubs (75.2 kg/cap) and fuel wood (50.2 kg/cap) with high intensities, while LPG (11.1 kg/cap) and paraffin (10.2 Ltr/cap) have the lowest. In winter months, animal waste and fuel wood have the most intensities of 45.6 kg/cap and 50.2 kg/cap respectively. In the districts, animal waste and fuel wood have high intensities of 44.8 kg/cap and 41.9 kg/cap, with the lowest in LPG (4.6 kg/cap) and paraffin (11.9 Ltr/cap) in summer, while in winter, fuel wood (46.9 kg/cap) has the highest and aloe (10.5 kg/cap) has the lowest intensity on average.
Lesotho’s energy consumption patterns in agro-ecological zones and administrative districts are mostly influenced by socio-economic and infrastructure gaps, which are apparent in the variation of energy consumption among districts and the reliance on traditional fuels is less urbanized areas. The Lowland zone and the Maseru district dominate most of the energy consumption statistics due to their large populations, better topography, proximity to infrastructure and stronger economic activities. The data delineates that while there is a growing shift towards modern energy sources, significant portion of the population still remain dependent on traditional fuels, particularly in remote areas.
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This approach provides critical information for policymakers, enabling them to develop more accurate energy demand forecasts and design targeted interventions. The study’s results can guide strategic energy planning to address Lesotho’s specific energy needs, promoting energy access and efficiency while transitioning towards cleaner energy sources. The insights gained from this research lay the foundation for future studies to build more sophisticated, localized energy models that better reflect the dynamics of Lesotho.