Optimal sizing, performance prediction and economic appraisal of off-Grid Solar PV hybrid power systems in Lesotho: A reliability–cost approach

Abstract

This dissertation reports about the development of and the application of a simple spreadsheet-based mathematical model for the sizing, the performance prediction, and the economic analysis of a PV-Diesel-Battery autonomous power supply system. The main objective was to find appropriate reliability level required of a mini-grid system in Lesotho that minimized the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), and at the same time, supplied a satisfactory energy service. The goal was to determine the costeffective level to set for the energy reliability for mini-grids in Lesotho, such that the LCOE would not increase disproportionately with the marginal increase in the reliability level. The method used was to find the reliability at the minimum cost using the elbow of the graph. The simulation and performance analysis showed that there was an infinite number of combinations of battery, PV array and diesel generator size required to achieve a given supply reliability. It was observed that the conditions for minimum LCOE may not correspond to highest reliability and satisfactory energy service.