Construction of a long-term hourly electricity demand curve and peak load using MAED-EL for Lesotho

Abstract

At the time that this study was undertaken, Lesotho Electrical Company (LEC) had no longterm hourly load curve forecast for electricity consumption. This makes it difficult for the utility to plan for future power plants and cost effective bilateral agreements as well as policy maker to make informed decision and for Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to be developed by investor. Therefore, this study aimed to construct a long-term hourly load curve for future electricity consumption in Lesotho starting with 2018 as the base year, followed by five-year long intervals from 2020 to 2040. The Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-EL) was used to calculate future hourly load curves for electricity and it uses the end-use approach when calculating the energy projections. Three scenarios were considered in this study to model possible trajectories of future electricity consumption, namely: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Low Economy Scenario (LE) and High Economy Scenario (HE). The annual growth rates of electricity consumption were estimated to be 4.3% for BAU, 2.4% for LE and 6.3% for HE. The projected peak demand for each scenario occurs during winter season (June to July). It was anticipated that the peak load will grow by 224% 123% and 54% for HE, BAU and LE scenarios from 2020 to 2040 while the energy consumption will increase by 223%, 122% and 53% for HE, BAU and LE from 2020 to 2040. The base load was predicted to grow from 58.77 MW,56.79 MW and 54.74 MW for HE,BAU and LE to 190.05 MW, 126.29 and 84.29 in for HE,BAU and LE respectevely in 2040 . Due to growth of electrical energy load the power deficit which was already high in 2018 at 94.44 MW would increase to 539.92 MW, 330.1 MW and 196.44 MW for HE, BAU and LE respectively in 2040. The Peak Load of the system was equal or above 75% of system peak load for 20% of the available time of the year.