Sources of agricultural growth in Nigeria: is it horizontal and or vertical expansion

Abstract

Knowledge of source(s) of increase in agricultural production is necessary for policy decisions. Increase in agricultural production could be achieved by increasing cropped area and or productivity. This paper examined the existence of long run relationship between area cultivated (hectarage) and production on the one hand and between crop yield (productivity) and production on the other hand for selected food crops in Nigeria using cointegration analysis. It also determined the magnitude as well as the persistence of production response to hectarage (or productivity) shocks for long run relationships by calculating variance decomposition and impulse responses. The results showed that long run relationship existed between hectarage and production for rice, cassava, groundnut, melon, maize and guinea corn and between productivity and production for guinea corn only;) horizontal expansion accounted for most variation in production of rice, maize, melon and cassava; and production response to hectarage shock was essentially expansionary and persistent in most cases. For sustained increase in agricultural production in Nigeria, efforts should be directed at policies that ensure easy availability of cropped land while not neglecting research into the better use of improved technology for productivity rise.