Determining cost-effective integration renewable energy resource plan for Lesotho (2022-2040)

Abstract

The renewable energy potential for Lesotho has been sufficiently studied with only a limitation of which specific places could such energy be derived. The country does not have an integrated renewable energy plan (IRP) to help direct its efforts to address the problem of energy insecurity, low energy supply and over 50 percent dependence on electricity imports from South Africa and Mozambique. Most of the resources have been spent haphazardly and unprofitably in a bid to address access to energy problem. The objective of this study is to create an IRP that responds to cost effectiveness in Lesotho for 2022 to 2040 and to identify suitable places for renewable energy generation using Geographic Information System (QGIS) capabilities in order to increase the baseload capacity for Lesotho. These objectives were achieved by evaluating the existing renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind by determining suitable places for power generation to meet the ever-growing demand. This was achieved by first establishing the aggregated forecast electricity demand using the existing studies and this forecast formed the basis for envisaged future power demand for Lesotho. For example, the electricity demand is projected to reach 350MW in 2040. Secondly, proximity analysis results of the resource base to the grid, primary road infrastructure and substations at 3.5km and 15km buffer zones were done to determine suitable areas for renewable energy generation. The identified places were examined and the amount of energy that could be generated from them was estimated and evaluated. The findings showed that a total of 310MW added into the main grid cumulatively from both wind and solar resources from 2022 to 2040 would result in electricity supply independence for the country. The cheapest option in a generation was given first priority in terms of when to enter into the generation stream to meet the existing demand during scheduling in the determination of the optimum IRP. The study recommends a progressive reduction of imports since they can serve as safety buffers of the electricity network in the event hydropower is not sufficiently developed. The energy policy, renewable energy policy and other energy supply and demand instruments will be profited by this study.